The Flight to Control:
Q2 2026 Digital M&A Market Report

Q2 2026 did not deliver a broad-based M&A recovery. Headline deal value accelerated while transaction count contracted. Strategic buyers returned to the front of the market, and capital moved toward assets that provide control over compute, power, regulated access, proprietary data, distribution and critical workflows. The first quarter was a re-rating. The second quarter was a flight to control: buyers paid less for category exposure and more for infrastructure, licences, platforms and capabilities that determine who can compete next.

01 At a glance

Q2 2026 market snapshot

Q2 was a high-value, low-breadth market. Scale and control attracted capital. Generic exposure did not.

02 Executive summary

Bifurcation, not recovery

Q2 2026 confirmed that global M&A has entered a bifurcated phase.

At the top end, large corporate buyers, sovereign-backed investors and infrastructure capital executed transactions of exceptional scale. A&O Shearman estimated global M&A value at US$2.8 trillion in the six months to June, the strongest half-year since H2 2021. At the same time, Q2 transaction count fell to 10,309, the lowest quarterly level since the start of the decade.

PwC described the market as increasingly K-shaped. It projects approximately US$4 trillion of global M&A value for 2026, up 13% year on year, but approximately 42,000 transactions, down 13%. Deals valued above US$5 billion represented 48% of global deal value, compared with 39% in 2025 and 26% in 2024. Excluding those megadeals, aggregate deal value was down 4%.

The market was not rewarding average companies more generously. It was allocating very large amounts of capital to a narrower group of assets with strategic scarcity.

Six acquisition rationales that cleared

1. Infrastructure control: compute, data centres, networks, power generation, grid access and cooling.
2. Regulated access: payments licences, custody permissions, transfer agency infrastructure and jurisdictional approvals.
3. Data control: proprietary datasets, identity graphs, industrial telemetry, transaction histories and trusted customer records.
4. Workflow control: software embedded in essential business processes where switching costs are measurable.
5. Distribution control: scaled audiences, recognised brands, developer ecosystems, enterprise relationships and platform access.
6. Risk control: cybersecurity, compliance, operational technology protection, fraud prevention and governance.

"AI-enabled" was no longer sufficient. Buyers tested whether AI improved retention, gross margin, sales productivity, workflow penetration or product velocity. Software without proprietary data, durable workflow ownership or credible AI resilience faced more conservative underwriting.

Private equity reflected the change. EY reported that technology-focused PE transaction value fell 50% year on year in H1 2026, while non-technology transactions increased 9%. Digital infrastructure was cited by 44% of surveyed general partners as a priority for increasing exposure. Trade sales represented 71% of PE exit value in the first half.

Sector picture in brief

• Technology: US technology M&A above US$100 million reached US$340.9 billion from April through June, up 100% year on year, focused on AI, automation, cybersecurity, connectivity and compute-enabling platforms.
• Cybersecurity: ServiceNow completed its US$7.75 billion acquisition of Armis. Accenture agreed to acquire a majority stake in Dragos and all of runZero and NetRise at a combined enterprise value of approximately US$4.175 billion.
• Fintech and payments: Nuvei agreed to acquire Payoneer for US$2.75 billion, combining acceptance, cross-border payouts, multi-currency accounts, banking relationships, licences and stablecoin capabilities.
• Crypto and digital assets: Architect Partners recorded US$12.9 billion of announced consideration across 71 transactions. Bullish's US$4.2 billion Equiniti deal showed the prize was regulated capital-markets infrastructure.
• Gaming: Drake Star tracked 51 M&A transactions and more than US$2.5 billion across 96 private financings.
• Media and content: buyers placed a higher premium on first-party audience ownership, direct monetisation and proprietary data.
• Digital infrastructure: MARA's US$1.5 billion Long Ridge Energy & Power acquisition illustrated convergence of energy ownership, land, permitted development and compute demand.

The middle-market implication is not that transactions have stopped. Preparation now matters more than market momentum. A business can still achieve a premium outcome when the buyer can understand precisely what it is acquiring, why the asset is difficult to replicate, how it performs under downside conditions and how value will be created after completion.

03 Methodology

How to read this report

This report focuses on announced and completed transactions relevant to the digital economy during Q2 2026, with H1 2026 data used where quarterly data was unavailable or where half-year context materially improves interpretation.

Coverage includes technology and enterprise software, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, fintech and payments, blockchain and digital assets, gaming and interactive entertainment, media, content and advertising technology, telecommunications and digital infrastructure, data centres, compute and energy assets linked to digital demand, and private equity activity affecting digital transaction markets.

Why market totals differ

Global M&A totals are not fully standardised. Providers may differ on announcement versus completion date, equity versus enterprise value, assumed debt, size thresholds, minority investments, joint ventures, public versus private coverage, estimated values, currency conversion and cut-off dates.

This report does not force different datasets into a single artificial total. It uses each source for the question that source is best positioned to answer:

• A&O Shearman for H1 global value and regional activity
• PwC for full-year trajectory and megadeal concentration
• EY for US transactions above US$100 million and private equity trends
• Architect Partners for crypto and digital-asset M&A
• Drake Star for gaming M&A and financing
• Company announcements and Reuters for transaction-specific facts

All monetary figures are in US dollars unless stated otherwise.

Interpretation standard

• Fact: directly reported by an identified source
• Acquiry analysis: interpretation of facts, transaction patterns or market behaviour
• Forward view: a reasoned expectation for H2 2026, not a statement of certainty

04 Central thesis

The flight to control

The first quarter's re-rating established that capital would no longer value all digital growth equally. Q2 showed what buyers would pay for instead: control over the strategic inputs that determine future competitiveness.

The control stack

Why control became more valuable

Three structural forces converged.

AI lowered the cost of creating products

AI accelerated coding, content production, analysis and workflow automation. Basic digital output became less scarce. Assets AI could not easily reproduce (trusted enterprise relationships, longitudinal proprietary data, licences, rights-cleared IP, physical infrastructure, embedded workflow access, direct distribution, brand trust, security telemetry, permitted power and land) became more valuable. The valuation effect was not a universal AI premium. It was a premium for defensibility in an AI-saturated market.

Boards demanded strategic certainty

Growth was concentrated, geopolitical risk persisted and large capital-expenditure commitments competed with M&A for corporate resources. Boards asked whether an acquisition materially improved strategic position or simply added another asset. Transactions capable of changing market access, cost structure, data ownership, risk posture or platform scale were easier to support.

The build-versus-buy equation moved toward speed

The question was not always whether a capability could be built. It was whether it could be built quickly enough with the necessary data, licences, talent and market credibility.

Q2 examples:

• ServiceNow acquired a cyber-physical asset intelligence platform and specialist team, not merely a security product.
• Accenture assembled Dragos, runZero and NetRise into a unified OT security platform with proprietary datasets and firmware-level visibility.
• Bullish acquired a regulated transfer agent with established issuer relationships relevant to tokenised capital markets.
• Nuvei acquired cross-border payout infrastructure, multi-currency accounts, regulatory permissions and marketplace distribution.
• MARA acquired power generation, permitted industrial land and the basis for an AI data-centre campus.

These were capability-control transactions.

05 Global market

Value up, breadth down

A&O Shearman reported US$2.8 trillion of global M&A value in the six months to June, the highest half-year total since H2 2021.

North America exceeded US$1.5 trillion, the highest six-month total in the source's dataset, even as transaction volume fell 16.2% compared with H2 2025. Europe reached US$661.5 billion while volumes fell 17.8%. Asia-Pacific value fell 25% to US$433 billion, with transaction count down 6%. Middle Eastern activity reached US$45.4 billion, up 7% against H2 2025.

The value figures imply confidence. The volume figures imply caution. Both are true.

PwC estimated that deals above US$5 billion represented 48% of global deal value in early 2026. Excluding megadeals, global deal value was down 4% year on year.

Two markets, not one

Market A (transformational capital): large public companies and sovereign-backed acquirers; strong balance sheets; strategic imperatives that cannot be solved incrementally; willingness to accept complexity and long regulatory timetables; focus on market structure, infrastructure and capability ownership.

Market B (selective middle-market execution): lower transaction volume; greater emphasis on profitability and cash conversion; longer buyer diligence; wider bid-ask gaps; more structured consideration; stronger preference for direct strategic fit; less tolerance for unproven forecasts or category-based pricing.

A US$50 billion strategic transaction can increase aggregate M&A value without improving the saleability of an average subscale software or media business. The middle market still needs its own proof of quality.

US technology led the quarter

EY reported that US transactions above US$100 million increased 88% in value and 29% in volume from April through June compared with the same period in 2025.

Source: EY US M&A Activity, June 2026. Technology deal count was 168, up 29%. EY attributed activity to AI, software, digital infrastructure, platform consolidation, automation, connectivity and compute-enabling assets. Power and utilities reinforce the relationship between digital growth and physical infrastructure.

Practical market reading

The market was open, but not indiscriminate. A buyer with strong strategic logic and sufficient capital could transact. A seller with real scarcity could achieve a premium. The difficult segment was the middle: businesses with good historical growth but uncertain AI resilience, limited differentiation or excessive dependence on a single platform.

The market demanded scale, scarcity, or a clear path to value creation. Assets without one of these had to compete on price.

06 Private equity

Capital rotated, not retreated

The defining Q2 PE story was not a collapse in deployment. It was a rotation in underwriting.

EY reported that global PE acquisitions fell 10% in H1 2026 compared with H1 2025, while aggregate deal value remained approximately flat. Technology-focused transaction value fell 50%. Non-technology transaction value increased 9%. US-focused PE deal value fell 25%, while volume declined 13%.

For much of the previous cycle, software was treated as comparatively predictable: recurring revenue, high gross margins and low capital intensity supported leveraged buyouts and buy-and-build. AI challenged parts of that framework. Sponsors had to assess whether product features could be replicated by foundational models, whether seat-based pricing would survive automation, whether workflows would consolidate into larger platforms, whether inference costs would pressure gross margins, and whether the product owned proprietary data or merely processed third-party data.

Resilience moved to the centre of underwriting

EY's survey found healthcare services and digital infrastructure as leading areas for planned exposure growth. Digital infrastructure, cloud, data centres and connectivity were selected by 44% of surveyed general partners. Within AI-related infrastructure: data-centre platforms 49%, power generation 33%, grid infrastructure 31%, semiconductor and AI hardware supply chains 31%, and software and services supporting AI infrastructure 29%.

This is not a retreat from technology. It is a move down the stack toward assets with physical constraints, contracted demand and clearer barriers to entry.

Exit pressure increased pragmatism

Trade sales accounted for 71% of PE exit value in H1 2026. EY also reported that 90% of surveyed general partners would accept some discount to original underwriting in exchange for immediate liquidity on a long-held asset, most commonly 6% to 10%.

That creates bilateral opportunities for strategic buyers where the underlying business is high quality, the investment has been held longer than expected, an IPO is impractical, and a strategic buyer can justify synergies a financial buyer cannot.

A&O Shearman observed continued use of continuation vehicles and secondary buyouts. For digital businesses, continuation structures can be attractive where a platform has completed the first phase of a buy-and-build, integration is incomplete, AI investment is required before exit, or management needs additional equity incentives.

07 Software and AI

From AI premium to AI proof

In Q1, the market frequently treated AI as a valuation accelerator. By Q2, sophisticated buyers had moved beyond the label. The relevant question became where the measurable economic advantage sits.

Diligence evidence buyers tested

Product evidence: is AI embedded in a core workflow or added as a superficial feature? Does the product improve with proprietary customer data? Can functionality be replicated through a general-purpose model? Does the company own orchestration, context, permissions and auditability? Are customers increasing usage after AI features launch?

Revenue evidence: retention, average contract value, new paid modules, shorter implementation or sales cycles, churn reduction, outcome-based pricing versus feature testing.

Margin evidence: inference cost per customer and workflow, gross-margin pressure, model-routing capability, contractual protections against model-provider price increases, automation reducing implementation or support expense.

Defensibility evidence: permitted training or fine-tuning data, proprietary labels and feedback loops, workflow permissions and integration depth, customer-data portability risk, compounding data advantage.

Three software groups

What buyers prioritised: mission-critical workflow ownership, high net retention supported by real usage, enterprise integrations, proprietary permissioned data, AI-independent customer value, evidence that AI improves economics rather than increases cost, low reliance on a single model provider, and strong information-security frameworks.

What lost value: generic horizontal tools without distribution, seat-based models exposed to headcount compression, products dependent on a single API with limited switching costs, services businesses presented as SaaS, growth created mainly by paid acquisition, weak data rights, unclear code provenance, unfunded technical debt, and products whose core feature can be reproduced through a model prompt.

H2 enterprise-software deals are likely to involve a scaled platform acquiring differentiated workflow capability, a services group acquiring software and data to increase recurring revenue, a vertical consolidator acquiring market share, or a strategic buyer acquiring an AI-resilient system of record or action.

08 Cybersecurity

From tools to control layers

Cybersecurity was one of the clearest expressions of the control thesis. As enterprises deployed more AI, cloud infrastructure, connected devices and operational technology, the attack surface widened. Buyers sought platforms capable of seeing, classifying and controlling that environment.

Kroll reported 75 cybersecurity transactions in Q1 2026, with US$2.2 billion of disclosed deal value, concentrated in the lower and middle market. Median enterprise value to next-twelve-month revenue multiples in Kroll's cybersecurity index fell 26% quarter on quarter as AI-related concerns affected public valuations. Kroll expected continued focus on identity security, AI-enabled defence, exposure management, cloud security and platform consolidation.

ServiceNow and Armis

ServiceNow completed its acquisition of Armis for approximately US$7.75 billion in cash. Armis provides cyber-asset visibility and security across IT, operational technology, internet-of-things devices, medical devices and other connected environments. ServiceNow stated that Armis, together with Veza, was expected to more than triple its addressable market for security and risk solutions.

The strategic rationale extended beyond product expansion: asset discovery, cyber-physical visibility, risk context, OT exposure, device intelligence, a specialised team and a route into critical-infrastructure workflows. The deal illustrates the value of controlling the asset graph beneath enterprise risk management.

Accenture, Dragos, runZero and NetRise

Accenture agreed to acquire a majority stake in Dragos and 100% of runZero and NetRise for a combined enterprise value of approximately US$4.175 billion. The three businesses were expected to generate approximately US$208 million of annual recurring revenue as of June 2026, representing 53% year-on-year growth according to Accenture.

The stack was complementary: Dragos for OT threat detection and proprietary datasets; runZero for attack-surface intelligence; NetRise for firmware-level visibility and software-supply-chain data; Accenture for global enterprise distribution and critical-infrastructure relationships. The design target was a unified platform for extended operational technology environments including power grids, pipelines, manufacturing, distribution facilities and data centres.

Why cybersecurity attracts strategic capital

High strategic urgency, a rapidly changing threat environment, a fragmented vendor landscape, enterprise pressure to reduce tool sprawl, strong value from combining datasets, cross-sell through existing platforms, specialist talent scarcity, regulatory and board-level accountability, and direct relevance to AI deployment.

Next acquisition battlegrounds

Machine identity for AI agents, service accounts and APIs. AI model and data security covering prompt injection, data leakage and agent actions. Exposure management prioritised by business context. Operational technology security for energy, logistics, manufacturing and data centres. Software supply-chain visibility into firmware, open-source dependencies and build pipelines.

The premium is likely to accrue to businesses with proprietary telemetry, high-fidelity datasets, strong enterprise retention, platform expansion potential, clear integration into security operations, differentiated identity or asset context, demonstrable reduction in risk or response time, and low false-positive rates. Not every cybersecurity asset will receive a premium.

09 Fintech and crypto

Regulated connectivity and institutional consolidation

Q2 fintech M&A was defined by infrastructure consolidation: global money movement, regulated access, cross-border capability and integration of traditional and digital settlement systems.

Nuvei and Payoneer

Nuvei agreed to acquire Payoneer for approximately US$2.75 billion in equity value. The combined company was expected to generate approximately US$3 billion in annual revenue, process more than US$500 billion in annual payment volume, serve more than 2.4 million customers and operate across more than 190 countries and territories.

Strategic value extended beyond revenue: regulatory permissions, local banking relationships, cross-border payout infrastructure, marketplace integrations, multi-currency accounts, trust in complex jurisdictions and distribution across major digital-commerce platforms. The transaction demonstrates that fintech value increasingly sits in regulated connectivity.

Payments control stack

As AI agents begin initiating transactions, payments infrastructure must support machine-authorised purchasing, delegated permissions, real-time risk decisions, audit trails, tokenised credentials, continuous settlement and cross-border compliance. That creates M&A opportunity across identity, fraud prevention, payment orchestration, agent permissions, stablecoin settlement, treasury automation and merchant-of-record infrastructure.

Fintech buyers are likely to scrutinise licence transferability, regulatory history, safeguarding arrangements, AML and sanctions controls, chargeback and fraud performance, concentration by merchant and corridor, scheme relationships, banking partner stability, unit economics, technology architecture, data residency and digital-asset exposure.

Crypto: high value, institutional character

Architect Partners recorded US$12.9 billion in announced consideration across 71 transactions, the second-highest quarterly M&A value in the sector's history, plus nearly US$4 billion of private financing across 269 rounds. Deal count fell, but transaction size remained high. This was institutional consolidation, not a broad speculative cycle.

Bullish agreed to acquire Equiniti in a transaction valued at US$4.2 billion, including approximately US$1.85 billion of assumed debt and US$2.35 billion of Bullish stock. Equiniti processes approximately US$500 billion in annual payments, supports more than 20 million verified shareholders and operates regulated transfer-agent infrastructure. The strategic asset is its regulated role in the ownership record. Tokenisation requires legally recognised issuance, transfer, identity, recordkeeping, corporate actions and compliance, not merely blockchain technology.

Architect Partners identified Standard Chartered's consolidation of Zodia Custody as the first acquisition of a crypto-native business by a global systemically important bank. SBI Holdings acquired bitbank for US$289 million. Financial institutions are moving beyond minority investments, laboratories and pilot programmes toward owned regulated digital-asset capability.

MARA agreed to acquire Long Ridge Energy & Power for US$1.5 billion, including approximately US$785 million of assumed debt. Long Ridge owns a 505-megawatt natural-gas power plant in Ohio, more than 1,600 contiguous acres and industrially permitted land intended to support data-centre development. Bitcoin miners' capabilities in power procurement, high-density computing and site development became relevant to a much larger AI infrastructure market.

What created value: regulatory licences, institutional custody, transfer-agent infrastructure, banking relationships, stablecoin settlement, tokenisation capability, identity and compliance, on-chain data, power and compute assets, scaled distribution and proven transaction volume.

What did not automatically create value: token treasuries without operating advantage, user counts unsupported by revenue quality, jurisdictional arbitrage without durable licensing, incentive-dependent protocol activity, unclear token governance, weak custody controls, unverified reserves and revenue dependent on market volatility.

Digital-asset deal structures may require regulatory change-of-control approval, asset and token segregation, independent wallet verification, escrow for on-chain assets, purchase-price adjustments for token volatility, locked or vesting consideration, earnouts tied to licences or assets under custody, and indemnities for historical AML exposure.

10 Gaming and media

Mid-market function and direct audience premium

Gaming remained a functioning mid-market

Drake Star recorded 51 announced M&A transactions, more than US$2.5 billion across 96 private financing rounds (the strongest disclosed private-financing quarter in the prior 12 months), and more than US$2 billion of new gaming funds announced during the quarter.

Notable transactions included TPG investment vehicle IMC acquiring Playstack, a management buyout of CCP Games from Pearl Abyss, Supercell acquiring the remaining interest in Metacore, Atari acquiring Hipster Whale, a proposed controlling-stake sale in Wemade to NeoPulse, and LY Corporation becoming the largest shareholder of Kakao Games.

IP remained the strategic anchor. A recognised franchise can support sequels, mobile and console expansion, licensing, merchandising, adaptation, community monetisation and platform distribution. Atari's Hipster Whale acquisition (approximately US$29.3 million initial consideration, with earnout potential) provided access to the studio behind Crossy Road and established mobile-development capability.

Activity concentrated in smaller and mid-sized studios, tools and platform companies. Large publishers need continuous content and talent pipelines. Independent studios face rising development and user-acquisition costs. Founders may prefer strategic distribution over repeated fundraising.

The strongest private-financing categories included gaming AI, advertising technology and hardware. Buyers will distinguish tools that genuinely improve production economics from capabilities that become standard features in major engines.

The CCP Games management buyout illustrates MBO relevance where the parent views the asset as non-core, the studio has strong leadership and a committed community, a strategic auction could disrupt employees or players, and the seller values certainty and continuity.

Gaming diligence increasingly requires product and audience metrics (DAU/MAU, cohort retention, payer conversion, ARPPU, content cadence, franchise durability), commercial terms (platform fees, UA payback, revenue concentration by title, publisher rights), technical ownership (engine licences, source-code ownership, anti-cheat, AI-generated asset provenance) and legal exposure (loot boxes, age ratings, gambling classification, child privacy, IP ownership).

Media: economics under structural pressure

EY reported US$46.173 billion of US media and entertainment transaction value above US$100 million from April through June, up 2% year on year, across 18 transactions (from 12).

Structural pressures persisted: streaming economics, advertising concentration, AI-generated content supply, search-platform disruption, declining referral traffic, audience fragmentation, rights inflation, subscription fatigue and platform dependency.

As search and social distribution became less predictable, media businesses with direct relationships became more valuable: verified email engagement, paid subscribers, logged-in audiences, mobile applications, communities, direct traffic, recognised brands, proprietary research, events, commerce capability and first-party behavioural data. A publisher with large traffic but weak user identity can be less strategically valuable than a smaller business with durable direct relationships.

AI search and zero-click answers made organic traffic concentration, query-level AI-answer exposure, brand versus non-brand mix, algorithm sensitivity, revenue per visitor and alternative distribution channels central diligence issues. Content provenance (authorship, rights assignment, training-data legality, image and video licences, originality proof) is now an asset-quality exercise, not a page count.

Attractive media assets: specialist information businesses, subscription intelligence, B2B data and research, regulated or high-value vertical publishers, communities with direct identity, performance media with diversified acquisition, content plus commerce, events and membership platforms, creator-economy infrastructure and rights-rich libraries.

Assets under pressure: undifferentiated SEO portfolios, high-volume generic content, single-affiliate dependence, weak first-party data, unclear content ownership, paid traffic arbitrage, unverified audience quality and platform-dependent video businesses.

11 Infrastructure and regions

Power, land and geography

Digital infrastructure as the AI balance sheet

PwC estimated that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft would spend more than US$700 billion in 2026 on infrastructure required to meet AI-services demand. Opportunities span data-centre development, power generation, grid infrastructure, energy storage, cooling, fibre, semiconductors, site operations and cybersecurity. Risks include overbuilding, power shortages, grid delays, permitting, construction inflation, customer concentration, uncontracted capacity and environmental constraints.

MARA's Long Ridge transaction showed the convergence thesis: 505 megawatts of generation, 1,600 acres, industrial permits, existing cash flow and potential data-centre development. The acquisition thesis was control of the full development pathway, not simply buying electricity.

PwC Australia expected increasing use of joint ventures, minority stakes, infrastructure partnerships, staged buyouts, options for future control, asset separation and long-term contracted structures. Infrastructure investors want contracted or highly visible demand, power certainty, permitted land, expandable capacity, strong counterparties, attractive jurisdiction, network connectivity and clear exit options.

Diligence must cover site (title, zoning, permits, water, expansion, natural-hazard exposure), power (interconnection, contract duration, price escalation, curtailment), commercial (customer concentration, contracted megawatts, SLAs, credit quality), technical (power density, cooling, redundancy, cybersecurity) and financial (maintenance and development capex, financing structure, contingencies).

Regional reading

North America dominated global value at more than US$1.5 trillion of H1 M&A value despite a 16.2% decline in transaction count to 6,261 (A&O Shearman). Large corporate balance sheets, deep capital markets, AI investment and technology concentration supported activity. Concentration risk remains: a small number of exceptionally large transactions can obscure weaker breadth. For middle-market digital assets, US buyers remain active but selective on recurring revenue, proprietary data, enterprise customers, security and proven integration potential.

Europe reached US$661.5 billion of H1 deal value while volume fell 17.8%. Opportunities include corporate carve-outs, regulated fintech, industrial software, cybersecurity, payments, vertical SaaS, gaming, data infrastructure and specialist media. Fragmented regulation and language can create barriers, but also strategic value for businesses that have already solved localisation, licensing and cross-border compliance. Expect longer execution planning for merger control, foreign investment review, data protection, AI regulation and employment law.

Asia-Pacific recorded US$433 billion of H1 value, down 25%, and 8,672 transactions, down 6%. Japan continues outbound acquisitions and portfolio reform. Southeast Asia saw a difficult Q2 private-equity environment year on year, with Singapore remaining the regional sponsor centre. India remains relevant across payments, software, marketplaces and digital services, with licence positioning materially affecting value. PwC reported approximately 1,285 announced Australian transactions in 2025, of which approximately 253 were in TMT with disclosed TMT value of approximately US$6.8 billion. Australia's 2026 outlook emphasised AI-ready data centres, fibre, edge computing, IT services, staged buyouts and minority positions with routes to control. Australia's Tuas terminated its S$1.43 billion agreement to acquire Keppel's stake in Singaporean mobile operator M1 after the regulator suspended its review amid spectrum-use allegations: regulatory compliance must be diligenced as a transaction dependency, not a post-signing workstream.

Middle Eastern H1 M&A value reached US$45.4 billion, up 7% against H2 2025. Sovereign and sovereign-linked capital continues to influence gaming, digital infrastructure, AI, cloud, telecommunications, fintech, media and sports technology. Sellers must still assess governance, approval processes, timetable, jurisdiction, strategic alignment and post-close operating model.

12 Selected transactions

Q2 deals that map the thesis

Values are based on public announcements and may represent equity value, enterprise value or total consideration depending on the source.

The disclosed values differ. The rationales are consistent. Targets controlled regulated financial access, security telemetry, OT visibility, cross-border payment networks, energy and permitted land, established intellectual property, enterprise distribution, customer identity or market infrastructure. That is the flight to control in transaction form.

13 Valuation and structure

What buyers paid for, and how they paid

Five premium drivers

1. Scarcity: replacement is difficult, expensive or slow because of regulation, data, infrastructure, distribution, brand, expertise, contracts, IP, permits or network effects.
2. Strategic acceleration: the target compresses time to market versus build cost, timeline, talent availability, customer waiting risk and licence obtainability.
3. Integration leverage: the asset becomes more valuable inside the buyer through enterprise distribution, dataset combination, licence deployment, franchise expansion or lower-cost capital.
4. Resilience: recurring revenue, contract duration, low churn, diversified customers, pricing power, cash conversion, low platform dependence, regulatory compliance and strong security.
5. Optionality: credible and controlled options such as licences enabling new markets, data supporting new AI products, brands entering adjacent categories, or infrastructure serving multiple workloads. Narrative optionality without assets, rights or execution capability does not clear.

Structure trends

Majority acquisitions with founder or management equity can preserve alignment and reduce initial cash, but introduce governance conflict and future valuation disputes.

Earnouts can bridge gaps on revenue, EBITDA, ARR, retention, regulatory approval, product launch or integration milestones. They fail when the metric is poorly defined or the buyer controls the outcome without adequate protections.

Rollover equity remains useful in sponsor and strategic transactions, but sellers must understand capital structure, liquidation preferences, governance, dilution, exit rights and tax consequences.

Stock consideration (as in Bullish-Equiniti's approximately US$2.35 billion stock component) can support larger transactions and preserve cash, while introducing market, lock-up, valuation, liquidity and tax complexity.

Carve-outs from corporate portfolio reshaping require diligence on standalone costs, shared systems, employees, IP, customer contracts, data, transitional services, brand separation and cybersecurity. A carve-out can appear profitable inside a parent while requiring material standalone investment.

MBOs can solve transactions where management has the strongest conviction, provided independent governance, fairness process, financing certainty and conflict management are in place.

Regulatory conditionality increasingly covers merger clearance, foreign investment, industry licensing, change of control, data protection, sanctions, banking partners and national security. Parties must allocate risk through long-stop dates, reverse termination fees, cooperation covenants, remedy obligations and termination rights.

14 Diligence and implications

AI-era diligence and deal-room implications

Traditional diligence remains necessary. It is no longer sufficient for digital assets.

Diligence stack checklist

Implications for buyers

Define the control objective before the category label: which workflow, dataset, licence, customer segment, infrastructure bottleneck, distribution channel, security layer or IP must be owned. Separate access from ownership by comparing build, buy, partner, license, joint venture and minority paths. Underwrite the downside first (slower growth, higher inference costs, lower search traffic, platform policy changes, regulatory delay, integration cost). Prepare multiple structures. Move faster on genuine scarcity with clear mandate, financing certainty and early regulatory analysis. Avoid category FOMO: active categories do not make every asset attractive.

Implications for sellers

Prove what cannot be replicated with evidence (exclusive contracts, retention data, licence history, proprietary data, brand search, direct audience, workflow depth, patents, infrastructure rights). Recast AI as operating performance: revenue contribution, margin effect, retention improvement, productivity gains, data advantage, model independence and governance. Clean the asset before going to market: IP assignments, domains, financials, customer contracts, data permissions, code repositories, employee agreements, regulatory status, security remediation, cap table and related-party arrangements. Reduce concentration where possible. Prepare a buyer-specific synergy case. Be realistic that strong headline value may require rollover, earnout, transitional support or retention arrangements.

15 Outlook and Acquiry view

H2 2026 outlook

1. Megadeal concentration will remain high. Aggregate value will continue to be driven by large strategic transactions; the broader market is unlikely to recover at the same rate without improved financing confidence and narrower valuation gaps.
2. AI infrastructure will widen beyond data centres into power, grid, cooling, fibre, semiconductors, site development, infrastructure software and cybersecurity. The best assets will combine capacity with contracted demand.
3. Software dispersion will increase. AI-resilient software will attract capital. Replaceable point solutions will face consolidation, lower valuations or acqui-hire outcomes.
4. Cybersecurity platform consolidation will continue around identity, OT, exposure management, AI security and software-supply-chain visibility.
5. Fintech and digital assets will converge further as banks, payments companies and digital-asset platforms compete for licences, custody, stablecoin settlement, tokenisation and institutional infrastructure.
6. Strategic buyers will remain central to PE exits, creating bilateral opportunities for corporates with clear synergy.
7. Gaming will remain a functioning mid-market through studio deals, carve-outs, MBOs and acquisitions of AI, tools, AdTech and established IP.
8. Media value will migrate toward direct relationships: first-party audiences, subscriptions, communities, data and commerce will outperform generic traffic portfolios.
9. Regulation will affect timing more than appetite. Strong strategic deals will continue, but execution timelines may lengthen.
10. Structured consideration will become more common: earnouts, rollover equity, staged acquisitions and minority-to-control structures.
11. The middle market will reward preparation: clean financials, strong data rooms and clear strategic positioning will transact faster with less value leakage.
12. H2 will be a market for conviction. The successful buyer will know exactly what it must own. The successful seller will know exactly why the asset matters.

Acquiry's view

Q2 2026 was not a simple recovery. It was a market selection event. Large amounts of capital moved, but not evenly. Capital concentrated around assets that offered control over strategically scarce inputs.

For buyers, the opportunity is significant. The re-rating of the middle market, combined with sponsor exit pressure and corporate portfolio reshaping, is creating access to assets that may not have been available during the previous cycle.

For sellers, the market remains capable of producing premium outcomes. The threshold is higher. Buyers expect evidence of defensibility, operational quality, regulatory readiness and post-close value creation.

The central question for every digital transaction is now: what does the buyer gain control of that it cannot reproduce quickly, safely or economically?

When the answer is clear, capital is available. When the answer is vague, valuation becomes difficult.

Acquiry advises strategic acquirers, private investors, founders and shareholders across digital M&A, executing buy-side and sell-side mandates involving technology, SaaS, fintech, payments, blockchain, gaming, media, content and related strategic assets.

Legal and research disclaimer

This report is provided for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting or financial advice, an offer to buy or sell securities or assets, or a recommendation to enter any transaction. Transaction values and market statistics are based on public sources available at the date of publication. Figures may be revised and may differ between data providers due to methodology, timing, currency conversion, transaction classification and disclosure limitations. Acquiry does not warrant that all reported transactions will complete on announced terms. Any prospective transaction requires independent legal, financial, tax, regulatory, commercial and technical due diligence.

Sources and references

• M&A in 2026: Strategic Focus, Geopolitical Pressures and Regulatory Shifts (A&O Shearman)
• Global M&A Industry Trends: 2026 Mid-Year Outlook (PwC)
• US M&A Activity Insights: June 2026 (EY)
• Private Equity Pulse: Q2 2026 (EY)
• Q2 2026 Crypto M&A and Financing Report (Architect Partners)
• Global Gaming Report Q2 2026 (Drake Star)
• Completion of Armis Acquisition (ServiceNow)
• Dragos, runZero and NetRise Acquisition Announcement (Accenture)
• Nuvei to Acquire Payoneer for US$2.75 Billion (Nuvei)
• Bullish to Acquire Equiniti for US$4.2 Billion (Reuters)
• MARA to Acquire Long Ridge Energy & Power (Reuters)
• Cybersecurity Sector M&A Industry Insights, Spring 2026 (Kroll)
• Australia's M&A Trends 2026 in TMT (PwC Australia)

Interpretation, frameworks and transaction guidance in this article are Acquiry analysis. Cited statistics belong to their original publishers. This is not a valuation opinion on any specific company.