Affiliate Concentration & Shock Simulator.
Buyers stress-test every affiliate site before they make an offer. Run the same test first: see how a core update, a commission cut, a closed account or lost rankings would hit your income, and which fix adds the most value.
Where your income comes from
Your last 12 months, after costs.
For example Amazon Associates, or your biggest network or brand deal.
Organic search sessions as a share of all sessions.
Check your analytics or affiliate dashboard by landing page.
What a buyer sees
A single event could move most of the income. This is where the biggest value gain sits.
- Hardest single shock
- A Google core update: -34%
- Core update and commission cut together
- -55% ($8,318 a month)
Stress test: four shocks buyers model
A Google core update
A broad ranking update moves your search traffic. The hit lands on the share of revenue that comes from Google.
Monthly income at risk$5,100 (-34%)Your largest programme cuts commission
Programmes reprice without notice. Amazon cut several category rates by more than half in 2020.
Monthly income at risk$4,875 (-33%)Your largest programme closes your account
Accounts get closed or programmes shut down. Some revenue comes back once links point to a rival merchant.
Monthly income at risk$3,900 (-26%)Your top pages lose their rankings
A competitor outranks your best articles, or a search feature answers the query before the click.
Monthly income at risk$4,125 (-28%)
Where the value is
Spreading all three levers to the healthy line adds about $90,000 to the modelled value. Ranked by what each one is worth on its own:
- +$38,250
Bring your largest programme under 40% (now 65%)
Add a second merchant on your top pages, test direct deals with brands, and add a display or sponsorship line.
- +$31,500
Bring Google under 65% of traffic (now 85%)
Grow an email list, Pinterest or YouTube, and direct visitors. Owned audiences are the traffic buyers trust most.
- +$22,500
Bring your top ten pages under 35% of revenue (now 55%)
Build supporting articles around your winners and refresh the next twenty pages so the earnings sit on a wider base.
Questions sellers ask
Why do buyers care about concentration?
Buyers pay today for income they expect to keep. If most of it rests on one programme, one traffic source or a handful of pages, a single event can move it, so buyers price that in. Spreading the income is one of the most direct ways to lift the multiple before a sale.
How is the multiple in this tool worked out?
Content and affiliate sites usually sell for 30x to 45x average monthly net profit. The tool places your site in that range using a concentration score built from three inputs: the share of revenue from your largest programme (40% weight), the share of traffic from Google (35%) and the share of revenue from your top ten pages (25%). Age, growth and workload also move a real valuation.
What counts as a healthy level of concentration?
There is no single cut-off, but sites with no programme above about 40% of revenue, Google below about 65% of traffic and their top ten pages under about 35% of revenue tend to sit near the top of the range.
I am heavily concentrated. Can I still sell?
Yes. Plenty of concentrated sites sell well. What matters is a fair price for where the site is today and a clear plan a buyer can follow to spread the income. We can help you decide whether to fix first or sell now.
Go further
Value the whole site
Concentration is one part of the price. Run the full numbers, the Google-update risk quiz and the readiness checklist on Sell my affiliate site (opens in a new tab).
Casino and betting affiliates
Revenue share, CPA and market licensing change the picture for gaming sites. See Sell a casino affiliate (opens in a new tab).
The multiple and value are modelled from three concentration inputs only. Age, growth, workload, niche and buyer demand also move a real offer. Use the result as a starting point for a conversation, not a valuation.
Thinking about selling your affiliate site? Talk to us first.
Buy-side and sell-side mandates across any sector and any market. If it is a real transaction, bring it to us.